Collision course

碰撞航線

Collision/碰撞，撞擊

Course/航線

As tensions rise between America and Iran, both sides need to step back

隨著美國(guó)和伊朗之間的緊張局勢(shì)升級(jí)，雙方都需要讓步

The drums of war are beating once again. An American air-craft-carrier strike group is steaming towards the Persian Gulf, joined by b-52 bombers, after unspecified threats from Iran. John Bolton, the national security adviser, says any attack on America or its allies “will be met with unrelenting force”. In Tehran, meanwhile, President Hassan Rouhani says Iran will no longer abide by the terms of the deal signed with America and other world powers, whereby it agreed to strict limits on its nuclear programme in return for economic relief. Iran now looks poised to resume its slow but steady march towards the bomb—giving American hawks like Mr Bolton further grievances.

戰(zhàn)鼓再次響起。美國(guó)一艘航空母艦戰(zhàn)斗群在受到伊朗不明威脅后，正與b-52轟炸機(jī)一道駛向波斯灣。美國(guó)國(guó)家安全顧問(wèn)約翰?博爾頓(John Bolton)表示，對(duì)美國(guó)及其盟友的任何攻擊“都將遭到無(wú)情的武力反擊”。與此同時(shí)，伊朗總統(tǒng)哈?！敼?Hassan Rouhani)在德黑蘭表示，伊朗將不再遵守與美國(guó)和其他世界大國(guó)簽署的協(xié)議條款。根據(jù)協(xié)議，伊朗同意嚴(yán)格限制其核計(jì)劃，以換取經(jīng)濟(jì)援助。如今，伊朗似乎準(zhǔn)備恢復(fù)緩慢但以穩(wěn)健的步伐向制造核彈的目標(biāo)邁進(jìn)，這對(duì)博爾頓等美國(guó)鷹派人士進(jìn)一步加深了他們的不滿。

詞匯

air-craft-carrier/ ?航空母艦

abide by/遵守，信守

unrelenting/無(wú)情的；不屈不撓的

grievances/抱怨，不平（grievance復(fù)數(shù)）

Just four years ago America and Iran were on a different path. After Barack Obama offered to extend a hand if Iran’s leaders “un-clenched their fist”, the two sides came together, leading to the nuclear deal. That promised to set back the Iranian nuclear programme by more than a decade, a prize in itself, and just possibly to break the cycle of threat and counter-threat that have dogged relations since the Iranian revolution 40 years ago.

就在四年前，美國(guó)和伊朗走的是一條不同的道路。在巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)提出，如果伊朗領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人“松開(kāi)拳頭”，他將伸出援手之后，雙方走到了一起，達(dá)成了核協(xié)議。這將使伊朗核計(jì)劃倒退十多年，這本身就是一個(gè)獎(jiǎng)賞，而且很可能打破自40年前伊朗革命以來(lái)困擾兩國(guó)關(guān)系的威脅與反威脅的循環(huán)。

Today hardliners are ascendant on both sides (see Middle East & Africa section). Bellicose rhetoric has returned. Mr Bolton and Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, believe in using economic pressure to topple the Iranian regime and bombs to stop its nuclear programme. In Tehran the mullahs and their Revolutionary Guards do not trust America. They are tightening their grip at home and lashing out abroad. In both countries policy is being dictated by intransigents, who risk stumbling into war.

如今，雙方的強(qiáng)硬派都占據(jù)了優(yōu)勢(shì)(見(jiàn)中東和非洲部分)。好戰(zhàn)的言論又回來(lái)了。博爾頓和美國(guó)國(guó)務(wù)卿邁克?蓬佩奧(Mike Pompeo)都認(rèn)為，應(yīng)利用經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力推翻伊朗政權(quán)，并使用炸彈阻止其核計(jì)劃。在德黑蘭，毛拉和他們的革命衛(wèi)隊(duì)不信任美國(guó)。他們正在收緊對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)的控制，并在海外大舉出擊。兩國(guó)的政策都是非妥協(xié)者決定，他們冒著陷入戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的危險(xiǎn)。

詞匯

Ascendant/上升的；優(yōu)越的

Bellicose/好戰(zhàn)的；好斗的

Topple/推翻；顛覆；使倒塌

Intransigents/不妥協(xié)的人

It is probably too late to save the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (jcpoa). Iran has been complying, but critics in America complain that its temporary restrictions will ultimately legitimise the nuclear programme and that the deal will not stop Iran from producing missiles or sowing murder and mayhem abroad. President Donald Trump pulled America out of the agreement last year, calling it a “disaster”. It is not, but that damage is done. Renewed sanctions on Iran and the threat to punish anyone who trades with it have wrecked what is left of the agreement. Last week America cancelled waivers that let some countries continue to buy Iranian oil. It is extending sanctions to Iran’s metals exports. Instead of reaping the bene?ts of co-operation, Iran has been cut o? from the global economy. The rial has plummeted, in?ation is rising and wages are falling. The economy is in crisis.

拯救被稱為《聯(lián)合全面行動(dòng)計(jì)劃》(jcpoa)的核協(xié)議可能為時(shí)已晚。伊朗一直在遵守協(xié)議，但美國(guó)的批評(píng)人士抱怨稱，其臨時(shí)限制將最終使核計(jì)劃合法化，該協(xié)議不會(huì)阻止伊朗生產(chǎn)導(dǎo)彈，或在海外制造謀殺和破壞。去年，唐納德·特朗普總統(tǒng)宣布美國(guó)退出該協(xié)議，稱其為一場(chǎng)“災(zāi)難”。事實(shí)并非如此，但損害已經(jīng)造成。對(duì)伊朗的新一輪制裁，以及懲罰任何與伊朗進(jìn)行貿(mào)易往來(lái)的人的威脅，破壞了協(xié)議的剩余部分。上周，美國(guó)取消了允許一些國(guó)家繼續(xù)購(gòu)買(mǎi)伊朗石油的豁免。它將制裁范圍擴(kuò)大到伊朗的金屬出口。伊朗非但沒(méi)有從合作中獲益，反而被切斷了與全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的聯(lián)系。里亞爾暴跌，通貨膨脹上升，工資下降。經(jīng)濟(jì)正處于危機(jī)之中。

詞匯

Legitimize/使合法化

Mayhem/騷亂，混亂；故意傷害

Waivers/ [法] 棄權(quán)；豁免

Predictably, rather than bringing Iran’s leaders to their knees, America’s belligerence has caused them to sti?en their spines. Even Mr Rouhani, who championed the nuclear deal, has begun to sound like a hawk. Having long hoped that Europe, at least, would honour the promise of the deal, he is exasperated. On the anniversary of America’s exit from the agreement, on May 8th, he said that Iran would begin stockpiling low-enriched uranium and heavy water, which would in su?cient quantities breach its terms. Without economic progress in 60 days, he said, Iran “will not consider any limit” on enrichment. All this suggests that Iran will start moving closer to being able to build a nuclear bomb.

可以預(yù)見(jiàn)的是，美國(guó)的好戰(zhàn)并沒(méi)有讓伊朗領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人屈服，反而讓他們更加強(qiáng)硬。就連支持核協(xié)議的魯哈尼，也開(kāi)始聽(tīng)起來(lái)像個(gè)鷹派人物。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，他一直希望歐洲至少會(huì)信守協(xié)議的承諾，但現(xiàn)在他感到憤怒。5月8日是美國(guó)退出該協(xié)議的周年紀(jì)念日，他說(shuō)伊朗將開(kāi)始儲(chǔ)備低濃縮鈾和重水，這將有足夠的數(shù)量違反協(xié)議條款。他說(shuō)，如果60天內(nèi)沒(méi)有經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)展，伊朗“不會(huì)考慮任何限制”鈾濃縮。所有這一切都表明，伊朗將開(kāi)始向擁有制造核彈的能力邁進(jìn)。

詞匯

Belligerence/斗爭(zhēng)性；好戰(zhàn)性；

Exasperated/惱怒的；煩惱的；憤怒的

Stockpiling/儲(chǔ)備

Uranium/ [化學(xué)] 鈾

?

As he walks his country towards the brink, Mr Rouhani has three audiences in mind. The ?rst is hi sown hardliners, who detest the nuclear deal and have been pressing him to act. He appears to have appeased them, for now. On May 7th the front page of an ultraconservative newspaper declared: “Iran lighting match to set ?re to the jcpoa.” He is also trying to get European companies to break with America. He will not succeed. Despite European Union attempts to design mechanisms that allow European businesses to skirt American sanctions, most of them have decided that the American market is too valuable.

在他帶領(lǐng)國(guó)家走向崩潰之際，魯哈尼想到了三個(gè)聽(tīng)眾。第一個(gè)是他自己的強(qiáng)硬派，他們?cè)骱藓藚f(xié)議，一直在敦促他采取行動(dòng)。目前看來(lái)，他似乎已經(jīng)安撫了他們。5月7日，一家極端保守主義報(bào)紙的頭版宣稱:“伊朗點(diǎn)燃火柴點(diǎn)燃了全面協(xié)議。他還試圖讓歐洲公司與美國(guó)決裂。他不會(huì)成功的。盡管歐盟試圖設(shè)計(jì)一種機(jī)制，讓歐洲企業(yè)繞開(kāi)美國(guó)的制裁，但大多數(shù)企業(yè)都認(rèn)為美國(guó)市場(chǎng)太有價(jià)值了。

詞匯

Detest/憎恨；厭惡

Ultraconservative/極端保守主義的

Iran’s most important audience is America, with which it seems to be playing an old game. Iranian leaders have long seen the nuclear programme as their best bargaining chip with the West. Though they have claimed that it is peaceful, UN inspectors have found enough evidence to suggest otherwise. The technology is the same whether power or a weapon is the ultimate goal. Iran’s centrifuges can produce a bomb faster than sanctions can topple the regime, goes the logic of hardliners. But they are wielding a double-edged sword. The threat of obtaining a nuclear weapon is useless if it does not seem credible. And if it is credible, it risks provoking military action by America or Israel.

伊朗最重要的聽(tīng)眾是美國(guó)，他們似乎在玩一場(chǎng)老游戲。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，伊朗領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人一直將核計(jì)劃視為他們與西方討價(jià)還價(jià)的最佳籌碼。盡管他們聲稱這是和平的，但聯(lián)合國(guó)核查人員已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)了足夠的證據(jù)表明事實(shí)并非如此。無(wú)論最終的目標(biāo)是力量還是武器，技術(shù)都是一樣的。強(qiáng)硬派的邏輯是，伊朗的離心機(jī)制造核彈的速度比制裁推翻政權(quán)的速度還要快。但他們正在揮舞一把雙刃劍。如果核武器的威脅看上去不可信，那么它就毫無(wú)用處。如果這是可信的，就有可能引發(fā)美國(guó)或以色列的軍事行動(dòng)。

詞匯

Centrifuge/離心機(jī)

Wielding/運(yùn)用；揮動(dòng)

The potential for miscalculation is large and growing. American troops are within miles of Iranian-backed forces in Iraq and Syria. Its warships are nose to nose with Iranian patrols in the Gulf. America recently declared the Guards a terrorist group; then Iran did the same to American forces in the Middle East. O?cials on both sides say their intent is peaceful, but who can believe them? America’s accusations that Iran has been planning to attack American forces or its allies in the Middle East are suspiciously unspeci?c. Violence by Iran’s proxies may be just the sort of provocation that leads America to launch a military strike. Mr Pompeo once suggested that he preferred American sorties to nuclear talks with Iran. Mr Bolton penned an article in 2015 in the New York Times entitled “To Stop Iran’s Bomb, Bomb Iran”. Now even Mr Rouhani appears to agree that the way forward lies with provocation and escalation.

誤判的可能性很大，而且還在不斷增加。美國(guó)軍隊(duì)距離伊朗支持的駐伊拉克和敘利亞部隊(duì)只有幾英里。它的軍艦與伊朗在海灣地區(qū)的巡邏船勢(shì)均力敵。美國(guó)最近宣布這些警衛(wèi)為恐怖組織;然后伊朗對(duì)美國(guó)在中東的軍隊(duì)也做了同樣的事情。雙方官員都表示，他們的意圖是和平的，但是誰(shuí)能相信他們呢?美國(guó)指責(zé)伊朗一直計(jì)劃襲擊美國(guó)軍隊(duì)或其在中東的盟友，這一指責(zé)令人生疑地含糊不清。伊朗代理人的暴力可能正是導(dǎo)致美國(guó)發(fā)動(dòng)軍事打擊的挑釁。蓬佩奧曾表示，比起與伊朗的核談判，他更喜歡美國(guó)的武裝出擊。2015年，博爾頓在《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》(New York Times)上發(fā)表了一篇題為《停止伊朗的核彈，轟炸伊朗》(To Stop Iran’s Bomb, Bomb Iran)的文章。現(xiàn)在，就連魯哈尼似乎也同意，前進(jìn)的道路在于解決不斷擴(kuò)大的紛爭(zhēng)。

詞匯

Miscalculation/誤算

Accusation/控告，指控；譴責(zé)

Proxies- proxy/代理人

Provocation/挑釁；激怒；挑撥

Escalation/增加；擴(kuò)大；逐步上升

A nuclear Iran would spur proliferation across the Middle East. Bombing would not destroy Iranian nuclear know-how, but it would drive the programme underground, making it impossible to monitor and thus all the more dangerous. The only permanent solution is renewed negotiation. Mr Trump, a harsh critic of America’s foreign wars, therefore needs to keep the likes of Mr Bolton in check. He will face pressure from hardline politicians at home and opposition in the region, not least from Israel.

擁有核武器的伊朗將刺激整個(gè)中東地區(qū)的核擴(kuò)散。轟炸不會(huì)摧毀伊朗的核技術(shù)，但會(huì)將核計(jì)劃轉(zhuǎn)入地下，使其無(wú)法監(jiān)控，因而更加危險(xiǎn)。唯一的永久解決辦法是重新談判。因此，嚴(yán)厲批評(píng)美國(guó)對(duì)外戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的特朗普需要控制住博爾頓這樣的人物。他將面臨來(lái)自國(guó)內(nèi)強(qiáng)硬派政客和該地區(qū)反對(duì)派的壓力，尤其是來(lái)自以色列的壓力。

詞匯

Spur/騎馬疾馳；給予刺激

Proliferation/增殖，擴(kuò)散；分芽繁殖

know-how/訣竅；實(shí)際知識(shí)；專門(mén)技能

Doing deals, though, is a Trump trademark. The president has shown an ability to change direction abruptly, as with North Korea. A new war is not in his interest, even if being hard on Iran is part of his brand. The Europeans can help him by urging Iran to keep within the deal—and condemning it if it leaves. Mr Rouhani, who spurned Mr Trump in the past, now says he is willing to talk with the deal’s other signatories if today’s agreement is the basis. That has so far been a non-starter for the Trump administration. It should not be. As the threat of a con?ict grows, all sides need to head back to the negotiating table.

然而，做交易是特朗普的一個(gè)標(biāo)志。總統(tǒng)已經(jīng)顯示出突然改變方向的意圖，就像朝鮮一樣。一場(chǎng)新的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)不符合他的利益，即使對(duì)伊朗采取強(qiáng)硬態(tài)度是他的招牌的一部分。歐洲可以通過(guò)敦促伊朗遵守協(xié)議來(lái)幫助他，如果伊朗離開(kāi)，歐洲還可以譴責(zé)伊朗。魯哈尼過(guò)去曾對(duì)特朗普不屑一顧，現(xiàn)在他表示，如果以今天的協(xié)議為基礎(chǔ)，他愿意與該協(xié)議的其他簽署國(guó)進(jìn)行談判。到目前為止，這對(duì)特朗普政府來(lái)說(shuō)是不可能的。不應(yīng)該是這樣。隨著沖突威脅的增加，各方都需要回到談判桌上來(lái)。

詞匯

Condemning/譴責(zé)；處刑

Spurn/摒棄；藐視

Signatory/簽名人，簽約國(guó)