Banyan

菩提樹

Not enough to speak

言語蒼白

When a disaster shakes, a country's political leaders face peril today

當(dāng)災(zāi)難發(fā)生后，一個國家的政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人將會面臨危機

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1 TWO DAYS after the tragedy, the streets of Itaewon were silent, save only for the whirring clicks of news cameras. In their frame was the alleyway in which a crush of bodies left more than 150 people dead. At the subway-station entrance white chrysanthemums had been left in memory of the victims.

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慘劇發(fā)生兩天后，梨泰院的街道上一片寂靜，只有新聞攝像機的呼嘯聲。在攝像機的鏡頭中，是一條小巷，在這條小巷里，曾有150多具死于擁擠的尸體。地鐵站的入口處擺放著白色的菊花，來紀(jì)念遇難者。

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2 South Korea remains in shock over the events of October 29th, when some 130,000 people flocked to a nightlife district of Seoul, the capital. Many more came than the authorities expected. As the night progressed and the numbers swelled, those crammed into steep, narrow streets were trapped. A weight of humanity caused some in the crowd to fall, triggering a domino effect. Others, unaware of what was happening, continued to pack in. No stewards were around to prevent the tragedy.

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韓國仍然對10月29日的事件感到震驚，當(dāng)時大約有13萬人涌入首都首爾的一個夜生活區(qū)。來的人比當(dāng)局預(yù)期的多得多。隨著夜幕降臨，人數(shù)激增，那些擠在陡峭、狹窄街道上的人被困住了。人群的重量導(dǎo)致其中的一些人率先倒下，從而引發(fā)了多米諾骨牌效應(yīng)。其他人不知道發(fā)生了什么，繼續(xù)往里擠。周圍沒有活動統(tǒng)籌人來阻止慘劇發(fā)生。

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3 Few countries have not suffered similar—avoidable— tragedies. Yet Asia appears to have more than its fair share. One explanation is self-evident: the region has more than its fair share of the world’s people, so human disasters are more frequent. The day after the Itaewon calamity, a river bridge in Morbi in Gujarat, the home state of India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, collapsed, killing at least 135, most of them women, children and the elderly. In early October a human crush at a stadium in Malang in Indonesia led to 131 deaths.

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大多數(shù)國家都遭受過類似的--不可避免的--慘劇。然而，亞洲似乎遭受了超過其合理的份額的慘劇。有一個解釋是不言而喻的：該地區(qū)擁有超過合理份額的人口數(shù)量，因此人為災(zāi)難的發(fā)生頻率更加頻繁。在梨泰院慘劇發(fā)生的第二天，印度總理納倫德拉-莫迪的家鄉(xiāng)古吉拉特邦莫爾比的一座橋梁坍塌，造成至少135人死亡，其中大部分是婦女、兒童和老人。10月初，印度尼西亞瑪瑯的一個體育場發(fā)生了人流擁擠，導(dǎo)致131人死亡。

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4 In Morbi the colonial bridge had just been reopened with a view to attracting tourist crowds. In Malang police precipitated panic when they fired tear gas at fans invading the pitch—a response long banned by football’s global governing body. So another part of the explanation for so many Asian disasters flows from the pace of the region’s march to modernity. Poor infrastructure, safety protocols or policing practices fail to keep up with fast-growing economies and populations which are both more mobile and ready for more varied experiences.

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在莫爾比，殖民時期建造的大橋剛剛重新開放，以此吸引旅游人群。在瑪瑯，警察向入侵球場的球迷發(fā)射催淚瓦斯，引發(fā)了恐慌--這是全球足球管理機構(gòu)FIFA早已禁止的行為。這么多亞洲災(zāi)難的另一部分原因是該地區(qū)正在向現(xiàn)代化邁進。然而，糟糕的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、安全協(xié)議或警務(wù)實踐未能跟上快速增長的經(jīng)濟和人口，這些人口的流動性更強，并期望更多不同的體驗。

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5 It is in that gap that political peril lies. Nowhere was this clearer than with South Korea’s last big catastrophe. In 2014 a ferry, the Sewol, capsized on its way to the holiday island of Jeju. Some 300 people died, most of them schoolchildren. The vessel was overloaded. Corrupt regulators had turned a blind eye to unseaworthy modifications. The crew abandoned ship before the passengers. The then president, Park Geun-hye, failed to appear in public for hours. It turned out she even urged the national intelligence service to track critics of the official response. Public outrage led to protests and opened the door to ever greater anger against her. She never recovered politically.

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正是在這種差距中，政治上的危機才會出現(xiàn)。這一點在韓國上一次的大災(zāi)難中表現(xiàn)得最為明顯。2014年，一艘名為 "Sewol "號的渡輪在前往度假勝地濟州島的途中傾覆。約300人死亡，其中大部分是學(xué)童。這艘船是超載的。腐敗的監(jiān)管機構(gòu)對不適海航的改裝視而不見。船員在乘客之前棄船而去。當(dāng)時的總統(tǒng)樸槿惠有幾個小時沒有出現(xiàn)在公眾面前。事實證明，她甚至敦促國家情報部門跟蹤那些批評當(dāng)局反應(yīng)的民眾。公眾的憤怒引發(fā)了抗議，并為對她個人的憤怒創(chuàng)造了契機。樸槿惠至今也沒在政治上恢復(fù)過來。

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6 Few leaders are as detached from their electorate as was Ms Park. Others responding to a calamity acknowledge its scale but seek to find fault elsewhere. Mr Modi visited a local hospital in Morbi and chaired a meeting there to review the disaster. At the same time, the state government, also run by his party, was quick to shift the blame onto the town government and private contractors. Gujaratis will have the chance to express their views in an election next month.

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很少有領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人像樸槿惠女士那樣與他們的選民脫節(jié)。其他人在應(yīng)對災(zāi)難時也承認災(zāi)難的規(guī)模，但也尋求在其他地方尋找錯誤。莫迪先生訪問了莫爾比的一家當(dāng)?shù)蒯t(yī)院，并在那里主持了一次會議，以回顧這場災(zāi)難。與此同時，同樣由他的政黨管理的州政府很快將責(zé)任推給了鎮(zhèn)政府和私人橋梁承包商。當(dāng)?shù)鼐用駥⒂袡C會在下個月的選舉中表達他們的觀點。

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7 Pressure for accountability mounts in ways that can pose risks for leaders. Many questions surround the Malang disaster in Indonesia: what were the police thinking by using tear-gas? Why were only four paramedics on duty? The Indonesian president, Joko Widodo, has forged close ties with the national police, who have helped him politically. At first he seemed to favour an internal police inquiry. That led many Indonesians to think that, absent such ties, he would have acted differently to ensure accountability, says Aaron Connelly of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. The president did then change course, approving a more independent inquiry. But it was not enough to prevent a sharp slide in his ratings.

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追究責(zé)任的壓力越來越大，可能會給領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人帶來風(fēng)險。許多問題圍繞著印度尼西亞的瑪瑯慘劇：警察使用催淚瓦斯的想法是什么？為什么只有四名醫(yī)護人員在崗？印尼總統(tǒng)佐科-維多多（Joko Widodo）與國家警察建立了密切的聯(lián)系，國家警察在政治上也對他有所幫助。起初，他似乎贊成警方進行內(nèi)部調(diào)查?？偛吭O(shè)在倫敦的國際戰(zhàn)略研究所(International Institute for Strategic Studies)的阿倫-康納利(Aaron Connelly)說，這讓許多印尼人認為，如果沒有這種關(guān)系，他將采取不同的行動來確保問責(zé)制的運行?？偨y(tǒng)后來確實改變了調(diào)查方向，批準(zhǔn)了一項更加獨立的調(diào)查。但這并不足以阻止他的民眾支持率急劇下滑。

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8 Back in Seoul, and reflecting the national mood, the South Korean president, Yoon Suk-yeol, said that “my heart is heavy and I struggle to cope with my grief.” He has promised a memorial to Itaewon’s victims, as well as an inquiry. Yet more questions are raised about the tragedy than are yet being answered. Above all, how could a police force that dispatches dozens of officers to even the smallest protests be so unprepared?

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回到首爾后，韓國總統(tǒng)尹錫悅的發(fā)言反映了全國的情緒，他說："我的心情很沉重，我在努力應(yīng)付我的悲痛。" 他承諾為怡泰院的受害者建立紀(jì)念碑，并進行事故調(diào)查。然而，關(guān)于這場慘劇，人們提出的問題比得到的答案要多。最重要的是，即使面對最小的抗議活動，警察部門也會派出幾十名警察。然而在這次事件中，他們怎么會如此毫無準(zhǔn)備？

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9 As for Mr Yoon himself, he has needlessly squandered political capital and goodwill during the few months he has been in office. That makes his job harder now. Still, a leader who applies balm to a country’s wounds, and who provides reassurance that lessons will be learned, can unite a country. How Mr Yoon acts now will shape the rest of his presidency.

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至于尹先生本人，在他上任的幾個月里，他已經(jīng)毫無必要地浪費了政治資本和民眾善意。這使得他現(xiàn)在的工作更加困難。不過，一個能對國家創(chuàng)傷進行撫慰的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，以及一個能讓民眾確信會吸取教訓(xùn)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，可以讓一個國家團結(jié)起來。尹先生現(xiàn)在的表現(xiàn)將塑造他余下的總統(tǒng)任期。