A new bear market in American shares

美國股市新一輪熊市

Financial markets

金融市場

AMERICA’s BEAR season, when hikers are advised to stay on their trails and carry pepper spray, runs for two months from September. It has come early for investors. The S&P500 index of leading American stocks has fallen by 18% from its all-time high in January, ten percentage points of which was in the past month alone. The index is flirting with bear-market territory, a 20% decline. The NASDAQ, a tech-heavy benchmark, has plunged well past that level. Since November it has shed 29%.

美國的熊季從9月開始持續(xù)兩個月，建議遠足者留在他們的小徑上并攜帶上胡椒噴霧。對投資者來說，這來得太早了。代表美國主要股票的標準普爾500指數(shù)從1月份的歷史最高點下跌了18%，其中僅上個月就下跌了10個百分點。該指數(shù)目前已接近下跌20%的熊市區(qū)間。以科技股為主的納斯達克指數(shù)暴跌，其暴跌程度遠遠超過這一水平。自去年11月以來，該指數(shù)已下跌29%。

For 18 months or so, since inflation began to climb, investors have fretted over how much the Federal Reserve would tighten policy, and how painful that would be for asset prices. The latest rout, which followed a meeting of the Fed on May 4th at which America’s central bank raised rates by 0.5 percentage points, offers an answer: very painful.

自通貨膨脹開始攀升的18個月左右的時間里，投資者一直在擔心會美聯(lián)儲收緊政策到什么程度，以及這將給資產(chǎn)價格帶來多大的痛苦。在美聯(lián)儲5月4日的會議上，美國中央銀行將利率提高了0.5個百分點，最近的一次潰敗緊隨其后，這給了我們一個答復：非常痛苦。

The market expects the Fed to raise interest rates by another 1.9 percentage points this year, even as it shrinks its balance-sheet fast. And the more entrenched inflation becomes, the more aggressive the Fed will have to be. Worryingly, American households expect inflation to be above 6% a year from now and almost 4% in three years, according to a survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on May 9th.

市場預計美聯(lián)儲今年將再加息1.9個百分點，即使它正在快速收縮其資產(chǎn)負債表。通貨膨脹越根深蒂固，美聯(lián)儲就必須采取更激進的措施。令人擔憂的是，根據(jù)紐約聯(lián)邦儲備銀行5月9日的一項調(diào)查，美國家庭預計未來一年通脹率將超過6%，三年通脹預期接近4%。

Higher real interest rates erode the present value of future cashflows. The sell-off has been vicious for technology stocks whose valuations rest on expectations of much larger earnings far in the future (see Business section). For the same reason, prices of bonds with long maturities have fallen heavily. Many speculative assets without cashflows have done even worse. Bitcoin is trading at about $27,000, half its value in November.

更高的實際利率會減少未來現(xiàn)金流的現(xiàn)值。對科技股來說，這種拋售是惡性的，因為它們的估值依賴于對未來更大收益的預期。出于同樣的原因，長期債券的價格大幅下跌。許多沒有現(xiàn)金流的投機資產(chǎn)的表現(xiàn)甚至更糟。比特幣的交易價格約為2.7萬美元，是去年11月的一半。

One question is whether the market slump signals deeper trouble in the economy. America’s unemployment rate is just 3.6% and more than 11m jobs remain unfilled. But the more zealous the Fed has to be, the more likely it is to cause a recession. Meanwhile, war in Ukraine has stoked energy prices. And X’s zero-covid policy is damaging its economy and adding to supply-chain snarl-ups around the world.

【1】stoke 激起；煽起

【2】snarl-up 交通擁堵；混亂

一個問題是，市場暴跌是否預示著經(jīng)濟問題的加深。美國的失業(yè)率只有3.6%，超過1100萬個工作崗位空缺。但美聯(lián)儲越是積極，就越有可能引發(fā)經(jīng)濟衰退。與此同時，烏克蘭的戰(zhàn)爭推高了能源價格。X的“零新冠”政策正在損害其經(jīng)濟，加劇世界各地的供應(yīng)鏈擁堵。

The other question is whether financial-market turmoil may eventually amplify economic problems, rather than merely reflect them. Over the past decade debt and equity markets have played a bigger role in finance, in part owing to tighter regulation that has inhibited risky lending and trading by banks. Most household mortgages now originate outside the banking system, and are issued as securities and held by investors. American companies get 57% of their debt funding from investors in bond markets, up from 45% in 2007. Banks play a smaller role as the middlemen in financial markets, their place taken by computers and specialist trading firms.

另一個問題是，金融市場的動蕩最終是否會放大經(jīng)濟問題，而不是僅僅反映這些經(jīng)濟問題。過去10年，債券和股票市場在金融領(lǐng)域發(fā)揮了更大作用，部分原因是監(jiān)管收緊抑制了銀行的高風險放貸和交易。目前，大多數(shù)家庭抵押貸款源于銀行體系之外，以證券形式發(fā)行，由投資者持有。美國公司57%的債務(wù)融資來自債券市場的投資者，這一比例高于2007年的45%。銀行在金融市場中扮演的中間人角色越來越小，取而代之的是電腦和專業(yè)交易公司。

These structural changes in the way finance works may mean that markets are more prone to bouts of erratic trading and nervous breakdowns. Regulators, as well as plenty of investors, have worried that the new-look Treasury market could seize up in times of stress, causing strains in the real economy. Violent moves in asset markets may have more of an effect not only on people’s retirement accounts and firms’ share prices, but also on their ability to borrow.

【1】erratic 不穩(wěn)定的；難以預測的

【2】seize up 停止運轉(zhuǎn)

金融運作方式的這些結(jié)構(gòu)性變化可能意味著，市場更容易出現(xiàn)難以預測的交易以及令人局促不安的崩潰。監(jiān)管機構(gòu)和大量投資者擔心，新形勢下的美國國債市場可能會在緊張時期失靈，從而給實體經(jīng)濟帶來壓力。資產(chǎn)市場的劇烈波動可能不僅會對人們的退休賬戶和公司股價產(chǎn)生更大的影響，還會對他們的借貸能力產(chǎn)生更大的影響。

As ten-year Treasury yields have climbed from 1.6% in January to 3% now, mortgage rates in America have shot up from 3.0% to 5.3%. Risky firms are beginning to find it hard to issue debt. The first quarter of 2022 was the slowest for high-yield issuance since 2016. When it tried to sell $3bn-worth of bonds in late April, Carvana, a second-hand-car retailer, struggled to attract investors even at double-digit yields. Unfortunately, the hikers are far from being out of the woods just yet.?

隨著10年期國債收益率從1月份的1.6%攀升至現(xiàn)在的3%，美國的抵押貸款利率也從3.0%飆升至5.3%。有風險的公司開始很難發(fā)行債券。2022年第一季度是2016年以來高收益?zhèn)l(fā)行最慢的一個季度。4月底，二手車零售商Carvana試圖發(fā)行價值30億美元的債券時，即便收益率達到兩位數(shù)，也難以吸引投資者。不幸的是，這些遠足者還遠遠沒有走出森林。