The Brexit rollercoaster

脫歐的過山車

To stop no-deal, Tory MPs must be ready to bring down Boris Johnson

為了阻止無協(xié)議脫歐，保守黨議員必須準備好讓鮑里斯?約翰遜下臺

Britain’s new prime minister promises thrills, but is heading for a serious spill

英國新首相承諾會讓人興奮，但即將面臨嚴重的墜落

Jul 27th 2019

“DO YOU LOOK daunted? Do you feel daunted?” asked Boris Johnson of the crowd of Conservative Party members who had just elected him party leader, and thus prime minister. The question was rhetorical, but many of them did look nervous—and so they should. Britain now has its third Tory prime minister since the vote to leave the European Union three years ago. Its deadlocked Parliament is refusing to back the exit deal struck with the EU, even as an October 31st deadline approaches. The pound is wilting at the prospect of crashing out with no deal. Steering a course out of this mess requires an extraordinarily deft political touch. Yet the Tories have gambled, choosing a populist leader who is nobody’s idea of a safe pair of hands.

“你看起來很沮喪嗎?”你感到氣餒嗎?鮑里斯?約翰遜(Boris Johnson)在剛剛選舉他為保守黨領(lǐng)袖、進而成為英國首相的人群中問道。這個問題只是口頭上的，但他們中的許多人看上去確實很緊張——他們也應該如此。自三年前脫歐公投以來，英國迎來了第三位保守黨首相。其陷入僵局的議會拒絕支持與歐盟達成的脫歐協(xié)議，盡管10月31日是最后期限。英鎊因無法達成協(xié)議而崩潰的前景而萎靡不振。要想走出這種混亂局面，就需要極其嫻熟的政治手腕。然而，保守黨已經(jīng)下了賭注，選擇了一位民粹主義領(lǐng)導人，但沒有人認為他是可靠的人選。

詞匯

Daunted/被威嚇的，氣餒，畏縮

Rhetorical/修辭學的；夸張的

Deadlocked/僵局的；陷入僵局的

Wilt/枯萎；（人）變得委靡不振

Deft/敏捷熟練的

Populist/平民主義的；民粹主義的

Mr Johnson, who wrote a biography of Winston Churchill and longs for others to see him in that mould, resembles his hero in the sense that he has inherited Britain’s worst crisis since the second world war. Brexit, and a no-deal exit in particular, promises to hurt the economy and leave the country diplomatically isolated in a world where its interests are under threat, as they are right now in the Strait of Hormuz. The risk is existential for the United Kingdom, as Brexit wrenches at the bonds with Scotland and Northern Ireland.

約翰遜先生為溫斯頓?丘吉爾寫了一本傳記，他渴望別人也能看到丘吉爾的這種性格。從某種意義上說，他繼承了二戰(zhàn)以來英國最嚴重的危機，這一點與他心目中的英雄頗為相似。英國退歐，尤其是不達成協(xié)議的退出，承諾將損害英國經(jīng)濟，使該國在外交上處于于一個其利益受到威脅的被孤立的地位，就像目前在霍爾木茲海峽(Strait of Hormuz)一樣。隨著英國脫歐對英國與蘇格蘭和北愛爾蘭的債券造成沖擊，這種風險對英國來說是生死攸關(guān)的。

詞匯

Mould/（人的）個性，類型

Existential/存在主義的；有關(guān)存在的

?

At a time of national gloom, the Tories hope that Mr Johnson’s ebullience will be enough to “ping off the guy-ropes of self-doubt”, as he put it in his jokey acceptance speech. We hope they are right. But in reality his breezy style seems not so much boldly Churchillian as unthinkingly reckless. To get to Downing Street he has made wild promises about Brexit that he cannot possibly keep. His fantastical approach means he is fast heading for no-deal—and therefore a face-off with Parliament, which seems determined to stop that outcome. Britain should get ready for one of the bumpiest governments in its modern history. It could also be the shortest.

在全國經(jīng)濟低迷之際，保守黨希望約翰遜先生的熱情足以“消除自我懷疑的心理障礙”，正如他在獲獎感言中開玩笑說的那樣。我們希望他們是對的。但實際上，他輕松活潑的風格與其說是大膽的邱吉爾式，不如說是不假思索的魯莽。為了入主唐寧街【引申為競選首相】，他對英國退歐做出了他不可能兌現(xiàn)的瘋狂承諾。他的這種異想天開的做法意味著他很快就會走向不達成協(xié)議的境地，因此他將與議會對峙，而議會似乎決心要阻止這一結(jié)果。英國應該為其現(xiàn)代史上最糟糕的政府之一做好準備。它也可能是最短命的。

詞匯

Ebullience/ ?奔放；興高采烈

guy-rope/鋼纜；拉繩

bumpiest【bumpy】/顛簸的；崎嶇不平的

?

As they waited for the decision of Tory members, ordinary Britons, who had no say in who would succeed Theresa May as prime minister, were left wondering which version of Mr Johnson they would get. Would it be socially liberal, pro-immigration Boris, or born-again Eurosceptic Boris? Chameleon that he is, Mr Johnson has mimicked the increasingly hardline politics of Tory members. In a surprisingly savage reshuffle, he has appointed right-wingers to his cabinet: Priti Patel, a past advocate of the death penalty, is home secretary, and Dominic Raab, an uncompromising Brexiteer, is foreign secretary. Mr Johnson’s belief that Donald Trump could provide a “l(fā)ifeboat” to Britain as it abandons the EU stopped him from criticising the president, even when Mr Trump belittled the British ambassador to Washington. Such pandering is dangerous at a time when Britain should be standing up to American policy on Iran.

在等待保守黨成員的決定時，普通英國人沒有發(fā)言權(quán)決議誰將接替特里薩?梅(Theresa May)擔任英國首相，不禁想知道他們將得到的是哪個版本的約翰遜。是支持移民的社會自由主義者鮑里斯，還是重生的歐洲懷疑論者鮑里斯?約翰遜是變色龍，他模仿了保守黨成員日益強硬的政治立場。在一場令人驚訝的野蠻重組中，他任命右翼人士進入內(nèi)閣:前死刑倡導者普里蒂?帕特爾(Priti Patel)擔任內(nèi)政大臣，毫不妥協(xié)的脫歐派人士多米尼克?拉布(Dominic Raab)擔任外交大臣。約翰遜認為，在英國拋棄歐盟之際，唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)可以為英國提供一艘“救生艇”，這一信念阻止了他對總統(tǒng)的批評，即便是在特朗普貶低英國駐華盛頓大使的時候。在英國應該勇敢面對美國對伊朗政策的時候，這種迎合是危險的。

詞匯

Mimick/模仿，摹擬

Reshuffle/重新洗牌

?

Most worrying is his otherworldly Brexit plan. Mrs May was undone by making unrealistic promises about the deal Britain would get, pledges she spent two miserable years rowing back from. Mr Johnson has made the same mistake on a larger scale. He swears he will bin the “backstop” designed to avoid a hard border in Ireland, which the EU insists is non-negotiable. He says Britain need not pay the exit bill it agreed on. He has vowed to leave on October 31st, “do or die”. And he says that if the EU does not roll over, it would be “vanishingly inexpensive” for Britain to leave with no deal. Mrs May found the contact with reality hard enough. For Mr Johnson it will be even more brutal.

最令人擔憂的是他超凡脫俗的脫歐計劃。梅因?qū)τ鴮@得的協(xié)議做出不切實際的承諾而一敗涂地，她痛苦地花了兩年時間才收回這些承諾。約翰遜在更大范圍內(nèi)也犯了同樣的錯誤。他發(fā)誓，他將放棄旨在避免愛爾蘭硬邊界的“后援”，歐盟堅稱這是不可談判的。他說，英國不需要支付它同意的退出法案。他發(fā)誓要在10月31日離開，“要么做，要么死”。他還表示，如果歐盟不支持延期，英國不達成無條件協(xié)議就退出歐盟的代價將“低得近乎于零”。梅發(fā)現(xiàn)，與現(xiàn)實的談判已經(jīng)夠艱難的了。對約翰遜來說，這將更加殘酷。

詞匯

Otherworldly/超脫塵俗的

roll over/翻滾；轉(zhuǎn)存；延緩付款

Vanishingly/難以察覺地；趨于零地

The Brexit rollercoaster has one turning that leads away from disaster. Mr Johnson has such a capacity for flip-flopping that, once in Downing Street and faced with the consequences of his promises, it is conceivable that he may simply drop them. His charm might help guide a slightly modified deal through Parliament. Europe is ready to help. But the chance that he will compromise seems slight. Whereas Mrs May had two years to retreat from her overblown commitments, Mr Johnson has just three months to eat his words. The Conservatives’ working majority is only three (and may go down to one after a by-election next week), with plenty of rebels on both the Brexit and Remain wings. So doing a deal would probably mean working with Labour, whose price is a second referendum. That would be a good outcome for the country, which deserves a chance to say whether the warts-and-all reality of Brexit matches up to the fantasy version it was sold in 2016. But the red lines in which Mr Johnson has entangled himself will probably keep such a deal out of reach.

英國退歐的云霄飛車有一個轉(zhuǎn)折點，可以讓人們遠離災難。約翰遜有如此大的轉(zhuǎn)變能力，以至于一旦入主唐寧街，面對自己承諾的后果，他很可能干脆放棄這些承諾。他的魅力可能有助于引導議會通過一項稍作修改的協(xié)議。歐洲已經(jīng)準備好提供幫助。但他妥協(xié)的可能性似乎很小。特蕾莎?梅有兩年時間可以從言過其實的承諾中抽身，而約翰遜只有三個月時間收回自己的話。保守黨的工作多數(shù)派只有三個(下周補缺選舉后可能會減少到一個)，在脫歐和留歐問題上都有很多反對派。因此，達成協(xié)議可能意味著與工黨合作，而工黨的代價是第二次公投。這對英國來說將是一個好結(jié)果，英國應該有機會說一下，英國退歐的種種現(xiàn)實是否與2016年拋出的幻想版本相符。但是約翰遜先生所處的紅線很可能會使這樣的協(xié)議無法達成。

詞匯

Rebel/反叛者，叛徒

Entangled/卷入的；被纏住的

?

That means the risk is growing that Mr Johnson will set a course for no-deal, billing it as courageous and Churchillian rather than the needless act of self-harm it really is. Some Brexiteers are following his lead in blustering that the warnings of damage to the economy, the union and Britain’s international standing are fake news. Others argue that those are simply the costs of getting Brexit done. But a no-deal exit would not accomplish even that. Talks with the EU on unresolved aspects of the relationship would have to resume, only with Britain outside the club and negotiating on worse terms than before. As for upholding democracy, there is no mandate for no-deal, which was not in the Leave prospectus, nor advocated by any party in the last election. Indeed, it is opposed by majorities of both Parliament and the public. Some hardline Brexiteers say Parliament should be suspended so that no-deal can be forced through—in the name of democracy. The grotesqueness of this speaks for itself. Yet Mr Johnson has not ruled it out.

這意味著，約翰遜將為“無條件”設(shè)定一條道路的風險越來越大，他認為這是一種勇敢的、邱吉爾式的行為，而不是實際上不必要的自我傷害行為。一些脫歐派人士效仿他的做法，大肆宣揚有關(guān)英國經(jīng)濟、歐盟和國際地位受損的警告是假新聞。其他人則認為，這些只是完成英國退歐的成本。但即便如此，無協(xié)議脫歐也無法實現(xiàn)這一點。與歐盟就雙邊關(guān)系中尚未解決的問題進行的談判將不得不重啟，只需要與歐盟以外的英國重啟談判，并以比以往更糟糕的條件進行談判。至于維護民主，沒有“無條件”的授權(quán)，這既不在脫歐綱領(lǐng)中，也不是任何政黨在上次選舉中所提倡的。事實上，它遭到了議會和公眾的多數(shù)反對。一些強硬的脫歐派人士表示，應該暫停議會，以便以民主的名義強行達成無條件協(xié)議。這種荒誕本身就說明了問題。然而，約翰遜并沒有排除這種可能性。

詞匯

Bluster/咆哮，氣勢洶洶地說

Grotesqueness/丑怪；可笑；怪誕

Mandate/授權(quán)；命令

If he tries such a reckless gambit, Parliament must stand in his way. It may be that its only course is a vote of no confidence. That would need at least some Conservative MPs to vote to bring down their own government, something that has not happened since rebel Tories helped turf out Neville Chamberlain in 1940. It would mean yet more uncertainty. Today’s polls show a four-party split, making any resulting election a lottery. But wavering Tories should be in no doubt that if Mr Johnson is allowed to suspend democracy to force through a no-deal Brexit that whacks the economy and risks the union, it will not only be a betrayal of the country, it might well spell the end of the Conservative Party. And Mr Johnson should be in no doubt that unless he ditches the fantastical promises and gets serious about doing a deal, he may end up being compared not to Churchill, but to Chamberlain.

如果他嘗試這樣一種不計后果的策略，議會必須阻止他?；蛟S，它唯一的出路就是投出不信任票。這至少需要一些保守黨議員投票推翻他們自己的政府，這是自1940年造反的保守黨幫助內(nèi)維爾·張伯倫(Neville Chamberlain)下臺以來從未發(fā)生過的事情。這將意味著更多的不確定性。今天的民意調(diào)查顯示四黨分裂，任何選舉結(jié)果都是難以預測。但是搖擺不定的保守黨應該在是否允許約翰遜先生暫停民主力量通過無條件脫歐做出果斷抉擇，因為這會對英國聯(lián)邦造成經(jīng)濟損失和風險,這不僅是對國家的背叛,這更可能是對于保守黨的終結(jié)。約翰遜應該毫不懷疑，除非他放棄不切實際的承諾，認真對待達成協(xié)議，否則他最終可能會被拿來與張伯倫(Chamberlain)相比，而不是與丘吉爾(Churchill)相比。

詞匯

Gambit/話題；開始；以取得優(yōu)勢的開局棋法

turf out/扔掉（東西）；趕走（人）

lottery/彩票；碰運氣的事，難算計的事

whack/重打；猛擊；擊??；削減