New robots—smarter and faster—are taking over warehouses

更快更智能的新型機(jī)器人正在接管倉庫

Most picking jobs will be done by bots

大多數(shù)揀貨工作將由機(jī)器人完成【深度】

A DECADE AGO Amazon started to introduce robots into its “fulfilment centres”, as online retailers call their giant distribution warehouses. Instead of having people wandering up and down rows of shelves picking goods to complete orders, the machines would lift and then carry the shelves to the pickers. That saved time and money. Amazon’s sites now have more than 350,000 robots of various sorts deployed worldwide. But even that is not enough to secure its future.

十年前，亞馬遜開始在它名為“履單中心”的巨大配送倉庫里啟用機(jī)器人。不需要人類員工在一排排貨架之間來回穿梭揀貨，機(jī)器人會把貨架舉起來送到揀貨員面前。這既省時(shí)又省錢。亞馬遜如今在全球部署了超過35萬臺各種各樣的機(jī)器人。但即便這樣也不足以確保未來的需要。

Advances in warehouse robotics, coupled with increasing labour costs and difficulty in finding workers, have created a watershed moment in the logistics industry. With covid-19 lockdowns causing supply-chain disruptions and a boom in home deliveries that is likely to endure, fulfilment centres have been working at full tilt.

倉儲機(jī)器人技術(shù)的進(jìn)步，加上勞動(dòng)力成本增加和招工困難，已經(jīng)在物流行業(yè)引發(fā)轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)。眼下疫情封鎖導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)鏈中斷，而送貨到家業(yè)務(wù)量大增的勢頭應(yīng)該會持續(xù)下去，因此履單中心一直在開足馬力運(yùn)作。

Despite the robots, many firms have to bring in temporary workers to cope with increased demand during busy periods. Competition for staff is fierce. In the run-up to the holiday shopping season in December, Amazon brought in some 150,000 extra workers in America alone, offering sign-on bonuses of up to $3,000.

盡管有機(jī)器人，許多公司在業(yè)務(wù)旺季還是需要聘用臨時(shí)工來應(yīng)對需求增長。招工的競爭十分激烈。在去年12月假日購物季前夕，亞馬遜僅在美國就增加了約15萬名員工，入職獎(jiǎng)金高達(dá)3000美元。

The long-term implications of such a high reliance on increasingly hard-to-find labour in distribution is clear, according to a new study by McKinsey, a consultancy: “Automation in warehousing is no longer just nice to have but an imperative for sustainable growth.”

咨詢公司麥肯錫的一項(xiàng)新研究認(rèn)為，高度依賴日益難求的勞動(dòng)力對物流配送的長期影響顯而易見：“倉儲自動(dòng)化不再只是錦上添花的東西，而是可持續(xù)發(fā)展的必要條件。”

This means more robots are needed, including newer, more efficient versions to replace those already at work and advanced machines to take over most of the remaining jobs done by humans. As a result, McKinsey forecasts the warehouse-automation market will grow at a compound annual rate of 23% to be worth more than $50bn by 2030.

這意味著需要更多機(jī)器人，包括用更新、更高效的版本替換已投入使用的機(jī)器人，以及用先進(jìn)的機(jī)器人接替大部分現(xiàn)在仍由人類完成的工作。因此，麥肯錫預(yù)測倉儲自動(dòng)化市場將會以23%的復(fù)合年增長率擴(kuò)張，到2030年市場規(guī)模將超過500億美元。

The new robots are coming. One of them is the prototype 600 Series bot. This machine “changes everything” according to Tim Steiner, chief executive of Ocado Group, which began in 2002 as an online British grocer and has evolved over the years into one of the leading providers of warehouse robotics.

新一代機(jī)器人即將進(jìn)駐。其中之一是“600系列”機(jī)器人原型。這款機(jī)器人“改變了一切”，奧卡多集團(tuán)（Ocado Group）的首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆·斯坦納（Tim Steiner）說。這家2002年成立的英國公司最初是一家在線雜貨零售商，這些年來已變身為倉儲機(jī)器人的主要供應(yīng)商之一。

The 600 Series is a strange-looking beast, much like a box on wheels made out of skeletal parts. That is because more than half its components are 3D-printed. As 3D-printing builds things up layer by layer it allows the shapes to be optimised, thus using the least amount of material. As a result, the 600 Series is five times lighter than the company’s present generation of bots, which makes it more agile and less demanding on battery power.

“600系列”外形奇特，很像一個(gè)由骨架式部件制成的帶輪子的盒子。那是因?yàn)樗话胍陨系牟考际?D打印的。由于3D打印是逐層構(gòu)建成型，因此可以優(yōu)化形狀，把材料用量降到最低。“600系列”因而比奧卡多當(dāng)前一代機(jī)器人輕五倍，所以它更靈活，對電池電量的要求也更低。

March of the machines

進(jìn)擊的機(jī)器

Ocado’s bots work in what is known as the “Hive”, a giant metallic grid at the centre of its fulfilment centres. Some of these Hives are bigger than a football pitch.

奧卡多的機(jī)器人在“蜂巢”里工作，這是履單中心里的一個(gè)巨大的網(wǎng)格狀金屬柜。有些“蜂巢”比足球場還大。

Each cell on the grid contains products stored in plastic crates, stacked 21 deep. As orders arrive, a bot is dispatched to extract a crate and transport it to a picking station, where a human worker takes all the items they need, scans each one and puts them into a bag, much as happens at a supermarket checkout.

網(wǎng)格柜的每個(gè)單元格里都放著裝有貨品的塑料板條箱，堆疊了21層之多。收到訂單后，一臺機(jī)器人會被派去抽取一個(gè)板條箱并把它送到分揀站。在那里，一名人類員工拿出所需要的所有物品，逐個(gè)掃描并放入一個(gè)袋子中，就和在超市收銀臺的操作差不多。

It could take an hour or so walking around a warehouse to collect each item manually for a large order. But as hundreds of bots operate on the grid simultaneously, they are much faster. The bots are choreographed by an artificially intelligent computer system, which communicates with each machine over a wireless network. The system allows Ocado’s current bot, the 500 Series, to gather all the goods required for a 50-item order in less than five minutes.

如果是一張大訂單，靠人員在倉庫中四下取貨可能需要一個(gè)小時(shí)左右。但如果是幾百臺機(jī)器人同時(shí)在網(wǎng)格柜上工作，速度就快得多了。這些機(jī)器人的工作路線由一個(gè)人工智能計(jì)算機(jī)系統(tǒng)安排，它通過無線網(wǎng)絡(luò)與每臺機(jī)器人通信。在這個(gè)系統(tǒng)的操控下，奧卡多當(dāng)前的“500系列”機(jī)器人可以在五分鐘之內(nèi)取完一張有50件貨品的訂單。

The new 600 Series will match or better its predecessor’s performance and use less energy. It also “unlocks a cascade of benefits”, says Mr Steiner, allowing Hives to be smaller and lighter. This means they can be installed in weeks rather than months and at a lower cost. That will make “micro” fulfilment centres viable. Most fulfilment centres are housed in large buildings on out-of-town trading estates, but smaller units could be sited in urban areas closer to customers. This would speed up deliveries, in some cases to within hours.

新的600系列在性能上將等同或優(yōu)于500系列，而能耗更少。斯坦納說，它還會“釋放一連串的好處”，讓“蜂巢”更小更輕。這意味著它們可以在幾周內(nèi)安裝完畢，而無需幾個(gè)月，安裝成本也更低。這將讓“微型”履單中心變得可行。大多數(shù)履單中心都設(shè)在郊區(qū)貿(mào)易園區(qū)的大樓里，但較小的履單中心可以設(shè)在離客戶更近的市區(qū)。這將加快配送速度，有時(shí)幾小時(shí)內(nèi)即可送達(dá)。

Amazon is also developing more-efficient robots. Its original machines were known as Kivas, after Kiva Systems, the Massachusetts-based firm that manufactured them. The Kiva is a squat device which can slip under a stack of head-height shelves in which goods are stored. The robot then lifts and carries the shelves to a picking station. In 2012 Amazon bought Kiva Systems for $775m and later changed its name to Amazon Robotics.

亞馬遜也在開發(fā)更高效的機(jī)器人。它最早的機(jī)器人叫Kiva，以制造它們的馬薩諸塞州的公司Kiva Systems命名。這種扁扁的機(jī)器人可以滑到存放貨物的一人高的貨架之下，然后舉起貨架，把它送到分揀站。2012年，亞馬遜以7.75億美元收購了Kiva Systems，后將其更名為亞馬遜機(jī)器人公司（Amazon Robotics）。

Welcome to the jungle

歡迎來到叢林

Amazon Robotics has since developed a family of bots, including a smaller version of a Kiva called Pegasus. These will allow it to pack more goods into its fulfilment centres and also use bots in smaller inner-city distribution sites. To prepare for a more automated future, Amazon Robotics recently opened a new robot manufacturing plant in Westborough, Massachusetts, to boost its output.

此后，亞馬遜機(jī)器人公司開發(fā)了一系列機(jī)器人，包括Kiva的縮小版Pegasus。這將讓亞馬遜能在履單中心存放更多商品，并在較小的市區(qū)配送站使用機(jī)器人。為了迎接更高度自動(dòng)化的未來，該公司最近在馬薩諸塞州的韋斯特伯勒（Westborough）開設(shè)了一家新的機(jī)器人制造廠以提高產(chǎn)量。

In 2014, when it became clear that future Kivas would be made exclusively for Amazon, Romain Moulin and Renaud Heitz, a pair of engineers working for a medical firm, decided to set up Exotec, a French rival, to produce a different sort of robotic warehouse. The firm has developed a three-dimensional system, which uses bots called Skypods. Looking a bit like Kivas, they also roam the warehouse floor. But instead of moving shelves, Skypods climb them. Once the robot reaches the necessary level, it extracts a crate, climbs down and delivers it to a picking station.

2014年，當(dāng)明確了未來Kiva機(jī)器人將專為亞馬遜生產(chǎn)后，一家醫(yī)療公司的兩名工程師羅曼·莫林（Romain Moulin）和雷諾·海茨（Renaud Heitz）決定成立Exotec，打造一種不同類型的機(jī)器人倉庫。這家法國公司開發(fā)了一個(gè)三維系統(tǒng)，用的是名為Skypod的機(jī)器人。它們看起來和Kiva有點(diǎn)像，也是在倉庫地上移動(dòng)。但Skypod不是移送貨架，而是爬上去。爬到所需高度它就會取出一個(gè)板條箱，然后爬下來送到分揀站。

Skypods, says Mr Moulin, maximise the space in a warehouse because they can ascend shelving stacked 12 metres high. Being modular, the system can be expanded easily. As well as returning crates to the shelves, Skypods also take them to places to be refilled.

莫林說，Skypod最大限度地利用了倉庫空間，因?yàn)樗鼈兛梢耘郎?2米高的貨架。由于系統(tǒng)是模塊化的，可以輕松擴(kuò)展。Skypod不僅能把板條箱送回貨架，還可以把它們轉(zhuǎn)移到重新裝貨的地方。

A number of retailers have started using Skypods, including Carrefour, a giant French supermarket group, GAP, an American clothing firm, and Uniqlo, a Japanese one. Because such robots move quickly and could cause injury—Skypods zoom along at four metres per second (14kph)—they tend to operate in closed areas. If Amazon’s staff need to enter the robot area they don a special safety vest. This contains electronics which signal to any nearby bots that a human is present. The bot will then stop or take an alternative route.

一些零售商已經(jīng)開始使用Skypod，包括法國大型超市集團(tuán)家樂福、美國服裝公司GAP和日本服裝公司優(yōu)衣庫。因?yàn)檫@些機(jī)器人移動(dòng)迅速（Skypods每秒可行進(jìn)4米，也就是每小時(shí)14公里），有可能造成人員傷害，所以它們往往在封閉區(qū)域內(nèi)運(yùn)行。如果亞馬遜的人類員工需要進(jìn)入機(jī)器人區(qū)域，他們會穿上特殊的安全背心。背心里裝有電子設(shè)備，可向近旁的機(jī)器人發(fā)出信號，表明此處有人。機(jī)器人會暫停行進(jìn)，或改走另一條路線。

Some robots, however, are designed to work alongside people in warehouses. They often ferry things between people taking goods off shelves and pallets to people putting them into bags and boxes for shipping. Such systems can avoid the cost of installing fixed infrastructure, which lets warehouses be reconfigured quickly—useful for logistics centres that work for multiple retailers and have to deal with constantly changing product lines.

但有些機(jī)器人設(shè)計(jì)的初衷是與人類一道在倉庫中工作。常見的工作模式是由人類員工從貨架和托盤中取出貨品，再由機(jī)器人傳送給負(fù)責(zé)將它們放入袋子和箱子中以備運(yùn)輸?shù)膯T工。這樣的系統(tǒng)可以免除安裝固定基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的成本，可以快速重新配置倉庫，這對為多個(gè)零售商配送、并且需要處理不斷變化的產(chǎn)品線的物流中心來說很有用。

When robots work among people, however, they have to be fitted with additional safety systems, such as cameras, radar and other sensors, to avoid bumping into staff. Hence they tend to move slowly and are cautious, which can result in bots frequently coming to a standstill and slowing operations. However, machines that are more capable and aware of their surroundings are on the way.

然而，當(dāng)機(jī)器人融入人群里工作，它們必須配備攝像頭、雷達(dá)和其他傳感器等額外的安全系統(tǒng)，以避免碰撞人。因此，它們往往行動(dòng)緩慢、小心謹(jǐn)慎，這可能導(dǎo)致機(jī)器人頻繁停頓，拖慢操作速度。不過，功能更強(qiáng)大、更能感知周圍環(huán)境的機(jī)器人即將上崗。

For instance, NEC, a Japanese electronics group, has started using “risk-sensitive stochastic control technology”, which is software similar to that used in finance to avoid high-risk investments. In this case, though, it allows a robot to weigh up risks when taking any action, such as selecting the safest and fastest route through a warehouse. In trials, NEC says it doubles the average speed of a robot without making compromises on safety.

例如，日本電氣公司NEC已開始使用“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敏感隨機(jī)控制技術(shù)”，這種軟件類似于金融領(lǐng)域里避免高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資的程序。不過在倉儲場景下，它可以讓機(jī)器人在采取任何行動(dòng)之前權(quán)衡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，例如選擇穿過倉庫的最安全、最快速的路線。NEC表示，在測試中，該軟件在不影響安全的情況下將機(jī)器人的平均速度提高了一倍。

New tricks

新花招

The toughest job to automate in a warehouse is picking and packing, hence the demand for extra pairs of hands during busy periods. This task is far from easy for robots because fulfilment centres stock tens of thousands of different items, in many shapes, sizes and weights.

倉庫中最難自動(dòng)化的工作是揀貨和打包，因此在旺季需要增加人手。要用機(jī)器人來完成這些工作很不容易，因?yàn)槁膯沃行拇娣帕穗y以計(jì)數(shù)的各類商品，形狀、尺寸和重量都各不相同。

Nevertheless, Amazon, Ocado, Exotec and others are beginning to automate the task by placing robotic arms at some picking stations. These arms tend to use cameras and read barcodes to identify goods, and suction pads and other mechanisms to pick them up. Machine learning, a form of AI, is employed to teach the robots how to handle specific items, for example not to put potatoes on top of eggs.

盡管如此，亞馬遜、奧卡多、Exotec和其他公司已經(jīng)開始在一些分揀站安裝機(jī)械臂來實(shí)現(xiàn)自動(dòng)化分揀。這些機(jī)械臂一般是用攝像頭和讀取條形碼來識別商品，用吸盤等機(jī)制揀貨。人們用機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)這種人工智能技術(shù)來教機(jī)器人如何處理特定的商品，例如不要把土豆放在雞蛋上面。

Ocado is also developing an arm which could bypass a picking station and take items directly from crates in the Hive. Fetch Robotics, a Silicon Valley producer of logistics robots that was acquired last year by Zebra Technologies, a computing firm, has developed a mobile picking arm which can travel around a fulfilment centre.

奧卡多也在開發(fā)一種機(jī)械臂，可以繞過分揀站，直接從“蜂巢”的板條箱中取出貨品。硅谷的物流機(jī)器人生產(chǎn)商“抓取機(jī)器人”（Fetch Robotics）開發(fā)了一種可以在履單中心里四下移動(dòng)的揀貨機(jī)械臂，該公司去年被計(jì)算公司斑馬技術(shù)（Zebra Technologies）收購。

Boston Dynamics, another Massachusetts robot-maker, has come up with a heavyweight mobile version called Stretch, which can unpack lorries and put boxes on pallets. On January 26th DHL, a logistics giant, placed the first order for Stretch robots. It will deploy them in its North American warehouses over the next three years.

另一家馬薩諸塞州的機(jī)器人制造商波士頓動(dòng)力（Boston Dynamics）推出了一款名為Stretch的重型移動(dòng)機(jī)器人，它可以給貨車卸貨并把箱子放上托盤。1月26日，物流巨頭DHL下了首張Stretch訂單，將在未來三年內(nèi)在其北美倉庫中部署這種機(jī)器人。

That timetable gives a clue that progress will not be rapid. It will take ten to 15 years before robots begin to be adept at picking and packing goods, reckons Zehao Li, the author of a new report on warehouse robotics for IDTechEx, a firm of British analysts. Some companies think their bots will be able to pick 80% or so of their stock over the coming years, although much depends on the range of goods carried by different operations.

這樣的時(shí)間表揭示倉儲機(jī)器人的發(fā)展不會太快。英國分析公司IDTechEx新發(fā)布了一份有關(guān)倉儲機(jī)器人技術(shù)的報(bào)告，作者李澤豪（音譯）估計(jì)，機(jī)器人能開始熟練地分揀和包裝貨物需要10到15年時(shí)間。一些公司認(rèn)為，它們的機(jī)器人將能夠在未來幾年內(nèi)分揀80%左右的貨物，盡管這在很大程度上待視不同業(yè)務(wù)涉及的商品種類。

Objects with irregular shapes, like bananas or loose vegetables, can be hard for a robot to grasp if it has primarily been built to pick up products in neat packages. The bot might also be restricted in what weight it can lift, so would struggle with a flat-screen television or a heavy cask of beer. Further into the future, systems could emerge to overcome many of these limitations, such as multi-arm robots.

如果一臺機(jī)器人主要是設(shè)計(jì)來抓取包裝規(guī)整的商品，那它可能很難抓住香蕉或松散的蔬菜等形狀不規(guī)則的物體。它能抓起的重量可能也有限，因此難以搬動(dòng)平板電視或沉重的桶裝啤酒。在更久遠(yuǎn)的未來可能會出現(xiàn)能夠克服許多這些限制的系統(tǒng)，例如多臂機(jī)器人。

So what jobs will remain? On the warehouse floor, at least, that mainly leaves technicians maintaining and fixing robots, says Mr Li. He thinks there are also likely to be a handful of supervisors watching over the bots and lending a hand if there remains anything that their mechanical brethren still can’t handle. It is not just inside the warehouse where jobs will go, but outside, too, once driverless delivery vehicles are allowed. At that point many products will travel through the supply chain and to people’s homes untouched by human hand.

那還能剩下什么崗位給人類呢？至少在倉庫里，留下來的人主要會是維護(hù)和修理機(jī)器人的技術(shù)人員，李澤豪說。他認(rèn)為可能還會留幾個(gè)人來監(jiān)督機(jī)器人的工作，在機(jī)械兄弟們碰到它們?nèi)耘f應(yīng)付不了的問題時(shí)伸出援手。而一旦開始啟用無人駕駛貨車，不光是在倉庫內(nèi)，倉庫外的人類崗位也會流失。屆時(shí)，許多產(chǎn)品在供應(yīng)鏈中流轉(zhuǎn)和送貨上門都將無需人類經(jīng)手。

People will also be employed building robots. Amazon Robotics’s new factory will create more than 200 new manufacturing jobs, although that dwindles into insignificance compared with the more than 1m jobs which the pioneer of e-commerce has created since the first robots arrived in its fulfilment centres. A lot of those jobs are bound to go, although many are monotonous and strenuous, which is why they are hard to fill.

生產(chǎn)機(jī)器人也還是會雇用人類。亞馬遜機(jī)器人公司的新工廠將新創(chuàng)造200多個(gè)制造業(yè)崗位，盡管相比亞馬遜自第一批機(jī)器人進(jìn)入其履單中心以來創(chuàng)造的超過100萬個(gè)工作崗位，這個(gè)數(shù)字微不足道。很多這樣的崗位勢必會消失，盡管其中很多工作單調(diào)又費(fèi)力——這也是它們難以招到人的原因。

However, other jobs will emerge. Technological change inevitably creates new roles for people. In the 1960s there used to be thousands of telephone switchboard operators, a job which has almost disappeared since exchanges became automated. But the number of other jobs in telecoms has soared. As logistics gets more efficient through greater automation, and online businesses grow, the overall level of employment in e-commerce should still increase. Many of these roles will be different sorts of jobs, just as there are many different sorts of robot. ■

不過，還會出現(xiàn)其他工作。技術(shù)變革必然會為人類創(chuàng)造出新角色。上世紀(jì)60年代有成千上萬的電話總機(jī)接線員，而自從交換機(jī)自動(dòng)化以來，這個(gè)工種已消失殆盡。但電信行業(yè)其他的工作崗位數(shù)量猛增。自動(dòng)化程度的提高提升了物流效率，網(wǎng)上業(yè)務(wù)也不斷增長，因此電子商務(wù)的整體就業(yè)水平應(yīng)該仍會提高。未來將有許多不同類型的機(jī)器人，也會有很多不同類型的工作。